Natural Gas Prices Climb Amid Cold Weather and Strong Export Demand
February 2, 2026
U.S. natural gas prices have shifted notably in recent months as winter weather patterns and global demand dynamics influence the market. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s latest outlooks, benchmark Henry Hub prices are expected to average around $3.90 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) through the winter season and rise further to about $4.00/MMBtu in 2026 — roughly 15–20% higher than recent levels. Seasonal demand for heating and growing exports have been key drivers behind the upward pressure.
Cold snaps and expectation of increased consumption for space heating have lifted price forecasts for late 2025 and early 2026, with winter estimates for spot prices raised compared with earlier forecasts — as colder temperatures are expected to boost consumption beyond prior expectations. Even as production remains strong and inventories sit above historical norms, seasonal demand and export growth are tightening near-term market balances.
At the same time, market volatility has returned after a period of unusually calm pricing, with futures and spot contracts reacting sharply to weather forecasts and storage expectations. Some analysts note that prices can remain sensitive to unexpected shifts in temperature or supply conditions, even as broader fundamentals like production capacity and storage levels help anchor longer-term trends.
Taken together, these developments point to a natural gas market that is rebounding from lower prices in prior years, adjusting to stronger export demand and the realities of seasonal consumption — trends that may have ripple effects on electricity costs, household energy bills, and industrial energy planning as we move deeper into the winter and into 2026.
